Comments on: An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/ Math lessons that click Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:52:43 +0000 hourly 1 By: Josh https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568437 Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:52:43 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568437 In actuality I have cancer or i dont, and probabilities are just estimates based on the available information. How do you account for information that you have, that the scientists evaluating the cancer test don’t have?
Using the available information, a positive test means theres a 7.8% chance i have cancer, but this is based on me being a random member of the public given a test. This doesn’t account for the fact that I have, for example, a weird mark on my skin.

If we know the chances of the test giving false and negative results based on either having or not having cancer, then can we use that in combination with the probability of, for example, a weird mark being caused by cancer or something else?

I looked at a study ( https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6618990 ) that said 90.48% of the doctors in their tests were correct when they identified a mark as cancerous. If my doctor has said my mark looks like cancer, is it logically sound to use this value as my hypothesis and calculate a 98.75% of me having cancer given a positive test?

]]> By: Supreme Potato https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568412 Wed, 25 Mar 2026 02:57:11 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568412 Dude, your phrasing of Bayes Theorem is awesome. Tysm

]]> By: Claude Courty https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568405 Sat, 14 Feb 2026 15:29:42 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568405 … Sans compter les approximations d’ordre sémantique du présent document, se voulant démonstratif : confusion entre chance, risque et probabilité.

]]> By: Claude Courty https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568404 Sat, 14 Feb 2026 15:26:35 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-568404 Ne pouvant prétendre à la logique expérimentale (cf. Pareto) ou même simplement déductive, puisque reposant sur des probabilités, le filtrage bayésien ne peut offrir que des compromis, et perd de ce fait, par définition, toute valeur de test.

]]>