Comments on: Understanding the Monty Hall Problem http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/ Learn Right, Not Rote. Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:38:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Kalid http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5786 Kalid Sat, 01 Oct 2011 01:06:00 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5786 @Don: Exactly, funny how that works right? @Don: Exactly, funny how that works right?

]]> By: Don M http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5785 Don M Sat, 01 Oct 2011 00:44:00 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5785 Actually Monty does you a confusing (to most people) disservice by throwing one away early. If he left the unpicked two doors closed and said you could open them simultaneously, and if you see a car ... you win. Almost all would then trade for the two doors. Actually Monty does you a confusing (to most people) disservice by throwing one away early. If he left the unpicked two doors closed and said you could open them simultaneously, and if you see a car … you win. Almost all would then trade for the two doors.

]]> By: Kalid http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5784 Kalid Fri, 30 Sep 2011 10:37:20 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5784 @Trevor: Hah! It's funny, I think everyone starts as a non-switcher until you slowly start to realize... =). Good point, no information was actually revealed since one of them *had* to be a goat. @Don: Thanks for the comment, glad the site's giving you something to chew on :). Actually I find learning most enjoyable when you come back to it, vs. having to memorize some explanation about why the Monty Hall problem works (vs. _understanding_ why it works). I like the analogy -- the key is seeing you're given the choice between 1 card (your original guess) or the best of two other cards. Monty just does you a favor by throwing one away early. Nice insight. @Trevor: Hah! It’s funny, I think everyone starts as a non-switcher until you slowly start to realize… =). Good point, no information was actually revealed since one of them *had* to be a goat.

@Don: Thanks for the comment, glad the site’s giving you something to chew on :) . Actually I find learning most enjoyable when you come back to it, vs. having to memorize some explanation about why the Monty Hall problem works (vs. _understanding_ why it works).

I like the analogy — the key is seeing you’re given the choice between 1 card (your original guess) or the best of two other cards. Monty just does you a favor by throwing one away early. Nice insight.

]]> By: Don M http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5783 Don M Fri, 30 Sep 2011 05:58:11 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#comment-5783 I have not read all of the above, so if this is already stated then ... sorry you have to read it again. This doesn't even have to be a question of math or probability. Given three cards: one Ace and two 9's You pick one of the cards but you are not allowed to look at it. Some bozo tells you that at least one of the other cards is a 9 (if you accept this like it means something special then you are a bozo as well ... because every time at least one of the other cards is a 9). You place the single card face down and next to it you place the other two card face down. Now the bozo tells you that if you pick the "stack of cards" that has the ace in it you win a car. Which of the "stacks" do you pick up ... the one with a 1/3 chance of winning or the other pile that has two cards in it? It has been twenty years since I thought of this scenario ... thanks Kalid, for the opportunity to keep thinking about stuff. I have not read all of the above, so if this is already stated then … sorry you have to read it again.

This doesn’t even have to be a question of math or probability.

Given three cards: one Ace and two 9′s

You pick one of the cards but you are not allowed to look at it.

Some bozo tells you that at least one of the other cards is a 9 (if you accept this like it means something special then you are a bozo as well … because every time at least one of the other cards is a 9).

You place the single card face down and next to it you place the other two card face down.

Now the bozo tells you that if you pick the “stack of cards” that has the ace in it you win a car.

Which of the “stacks” do you pick up … the one with a 1/3 chance of winning or the other pile that has two cards in it?

It has been twenty years since I thought of this scenario … thanks Kalid, for the opportunity to keep thinking about stuff.

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