Comments on: An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes' Theorem http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/ Learn Right, Not Rote. Wed, 16 May 2012 12:30:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Interesting -The Carbohydrate Hypothesis of Obesity: a Critical Examination - Page 11 | Mark's Daily Apple Health and Fitness Forum page 11 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-78925 Interesting -The Carbohydrate Hypothesis of Obesity: a Critical Examination - Page 11 | Mark's Daily Apple Health and Fitness Forum page 11 Tue, 15 May 2012 20:47:07 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-78925 [...] What about all the single digit body fat people you don't know? Don't commit base rate fallacy. An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes' Theorem | BetterExplained Originally Posted by dboxing Where is the epidemic of obesity in Holland (where I was [...] [...] What about all the single digit body fat people you don't know? Don't commit base rate fallacy. An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes' Theorem | BetterExplained Originally Posted by dboxing Where is the epidemic of obesity in Holland (where I was [...]

]]> By: elmira komijani http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-77869 elmira komijani Sat, 12 May 2012 12:45:29 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-77869 Hello guys; could you help me to solve this problem as soon as possible? Transplant operations for hearts have the risk that the body may reject the organ. A new test has been developed to detect early warning signs that the body may be rejecting the heart. However, the test is not perfect. When the test is conducted on someone whose heart will be rejected, approximately two out of ten tests will be negative (the test is wrong). When the test is conducted on a person whose heart will not be rejected, 10% will show a positive test result (another incorrect result). Doctors know that in about 50% of heart transplants the body tries to reject the organ. *Suppose the test was performed on my mother and the test is positive (indicating early warning signs of rejection). What is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the heart? *Suppose the test was performed on my mother and the test is negative (indicating no signs of rejection). What is the probability that the body is attempting to reject the heart? Hello guys;
could you help me to solve this problem as soon as possible?
Transplant operations for hearts have the risk that the body may reject
the organ. A new test has been developed to detect early warning signs
that the body may be rejecting the heart. However, the test is not
perfect. When the test is conducted on someone whose heart will be
rejected, approximately two out of ten tests will be negative (the test is
wrong). When the test is conducted on a person whose heart will not
be rejected, 10% will show a positive test result (another incorrect
result). Doctors know that in about 50% of heart transplants the body
tries to reject the organ.
*Suppose the test was performed on my mother and the test is positive
(indicating early warning signs of rejection). What is the probability that the
body is attempting to reject the heart?
*Suppose the test was performed on my mother and the test is negative
(indicating no signs of rejection). What is the probability that the body is
attempting to reject the heart?

]]> By: Jack Kruse....what is he up to? | Mark's Daily Apple Health and Fitness Forum page http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-76487 Jack Kruse....what is he up to? | Mark's Daily Apple Health and Fitness Forum page Tue, 08 May 2012 07:33:15 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-76487 [...] Sounds like a false positive... An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes' Theorem | BetterExplained Reply With Quote « Previous Thread | Next Thread [...] [...] Sounds like a false positive… An Intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes' Theorem | BetterExplained Reply With Quote « Previous Thread | Next Thread [...]

]]> By: gerry worts http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-65425 gerry worts Thu, 29 Mar 2012 03:23:41 +0000 http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/#comment-65425 Here are two contradictory statements in your article regarding False positives. I quote: Pr(X|~A) = Chance of a positive test (X) given that you didn’t have cancer (~A). This is a false positive, 9.6% in our case. The chances of a false positive = chance you don’t have cancer * chance test caught it anyway = 99% * 9.6% = 0.09504 These two interpretations of false positives are often mixed in various texts. One is Pr(X|~A) and the other is Pr(X∩~A) Here are two contradictory statements in your article regarding False positives. I quote:

Pr(X|~A) = Chance of a positive test (X) given that you didn’t have cancer (~A). This is a false positive, 9.6% in our case.

The chances of a false positive = chance you don’t have cancer * chance test caught it anyway = 99% * 9.6% = 0.09504

These two interpretations of false positives are often mixed in various texts.
One is Pr(X|~A) and the other is Pr(X∩~A)

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